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Prediction for CME (2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-10T15:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47501/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SW in STEREO A COR2, GOES CCOR-1, and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after a downlink gap backfilled in. The source is AR 14485 and a C6.0 flare (S16W47) peaking at 2026-07-10T14:59Z. Also observed well in SDO AIA 171/193 as field line movement, pockets of dimming in the vicinity (not a central area), and a minor EUV wave. Arrival signature: Characterized by an increase in B_total from 4nT to 5nT, reaching periods of 9nT at 2026-07-13T15:51Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 412 km/s to 430 km/s, an increase in density, and a small increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T14:39Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T15:14Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 68.3333%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.4
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 24.67 hour(s)
Difference: -0.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-07-12T13:59Z
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